Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP-more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as...

This paper reviews the fiscal implications of climate change, and the potential role of the Fund in addressing them. It stresses that: -- The potential fiscal implications are immediate as well as lasting, and liable to affect-in differing forms and degree-all Fund members. -- Climate change is...

This paper presents three empirical approaches to forecasting inflation in Pakistan. The preferred approach is a leading indicators model in which broad money growth and private sector credit growth help forecast inflation. A univariate approach also yields reasonable forecasts, but seems less...

This paper seeks to advance the discussion of monetary policy strategies in several ways. One involves a comparison of targets for nominal GNP and the price level, with emphasis on specificational robustness and implications for output variability. A second pertains to various “indicator”...

This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical...