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Middle East Transitions: A Long, Hard Road
Yusuf, Shahid - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
Countries in Transition, ACTs) has slowed already sluggish growth; worsened unemployment, particularly of youth; undermined …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142081
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Institutional Models for Macroprudential Policy
Nier, Erlend; Jácome, Luis Ignacio; Osinski, Jacek; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142223
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Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus; An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions
Cevik, Serhan; Rahmati, Mohammad - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242246
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The Macroprudential Framework; Policy Responsiveness and Institutional Arrangements
Lim, Cheng Hoon; Krznar, Ivo; Lipinsky, Fabian; Otani, Akira - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper gauges if, and how, institutional arrangements are correlated with the use of macroprudential policy instruments. Using data from 39 countries, the paper evaluates policy response time in various types of institutional arrangements for macroprudential policy and finds that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242316
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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?
Balakrishnan, Ravi; Dao, Mai; Sole, Juan; Zook, Jeremy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242381
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Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels
Choi, Sangyup; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242392
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Tests of German Resilience
Bornhorst, Fabian; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142028
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Medium-Term Fiscal Multipliers during Protracted Recessions
Dell'Erba, Salvatore; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment … unemployment at five-year horizons are significantly above one during PR episodes. These results suggest that medium-term fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142040
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Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Anand, Rahul; Cheng, Kevin C.; Rehman, Sidra; Zhang, Longmei - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142066
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Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output
Ding, Ding; Nelmes, John; Perera, Roshan; Tulin, Volodymyr - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
data series including inflation, actual output, unemployment and capacity utilization. The estimation results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142089