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Breaking the Curse of Sisyphus; An Empirical Analysis of Post-Conflict Economic Transitions
Cevik, Serhan; Rahmati, Mohammad - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper provides a broad empirical analysis of the determinants of post-conflict economic transitions across the world during the period 1960–2010, using a dynamic panel estimation approach based on the system-generalized method of moments. In addition to an array of demographic,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242246
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Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output
Ding, Ding; Nelmes, John; Perera, Roshan; Tulin, Volodymyr - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
data series including inflation, actual output, unemployment and capacity utilization. The estimation results suggest that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142089
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Emerging Market Business Cycles; The Role of Labor Market Frictions
Boz, Emine; Durdu, Ceyhun Bora; Li, Nan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
Emerging economies are characterized by higher consumption and real wage variability relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions and countercyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242182
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Chronicle of a Decline Foretold; Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
Das, Mitali; N'Diaye, Papa M - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242230
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Okun's Law; Fit at 50?
Ball, Laurence M.; Leigh, Daniel; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in … the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242241
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Dissecting Saving Dynamics; Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects
Carroll, Christopher; Sommer, Martin; Slacalek, Jiri - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242291
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Institutions, Informality, and Wage Flexibility; Evidence From Brazil
Filho, Irineu E. Carvalho; Estevão, Marcello M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
Even though institutions are created to protect workers, they may interfere with labor market functioning, raise … unemployment, and end up being circumvented by informal contracts. This paper uses Brazilian microeconomic data to show that the … could have contributed to the ensuing higher rates of unemployment in the country. Moreover, the paper shows that states …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242295
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What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables
Andrle, Michal - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790260
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A Fiscal Stimulus and Jobless Recovery
Cantore, Cristiano; Levine, Paul; Melina, Giovanni - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
We analyse the effects of a government spending expansion in a DSGE model with Mortensen-Pissarides labour market frictions, deep habits in private and public consumption, investment adjustment costs, a constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function, and adjustments in employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790312
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The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
Matheson, Troy; Stavrev, Emil - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790401