Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking...

We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has...

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...

A model for world crude oil and natural gas markets is estimated. It confirms low price and high income elasticities of demand for both crude oil and natural gas, which explains the market power of oil producers and price volatility following shocks. The paper establishes a relationship between...

This Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Nigeria highlights the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (NEEDS). NEEDS gives special support to agriculture, industry, small and medium-scale enterprises, and oil and gas. Under the plan, the government will seek long-term capital...

Russia’s large oil and gas reserves play a key role in its economic development. As with many other large oil exporters, Russia’s energy wealth is also posing numerous challenges to macroeconomic management. Although fiscal policy has saved a large part of the oil windfall in the...

This Selected Issues paper on Azerbaijan Republic reports that the government has made substantial progress in dealing with energy-related subsidies. The domestic market for oil products has been tightly regulated by the government since Azerbaijan gained independence. Azerbaijan is largely...

This 2004 Article IV Consultation highlights that the macroeconomic performance of United Arab Emirates is estimated to have been strong in 2003, reflecting favorable developments in the oil market, higher oil production, and prices. Non Hydrocarbon real GDP growth is estimated to have remained...

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

This paper proposes an integrated approach to fiscal policy analysis in oil producing countries (OPCs) geared towards addressing their unique and complex policy challenges. First, an accurate assessment of the fiscal stance in OPCs can be obscured by large and volatile oil revenue flows. Second,...