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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?

Balakrishnan, Ravi; Dao, Mai; Sole, Juan; Zook, Jeremy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242381

Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Choi, Sangyup; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242392