Lombardi, Marco; Espinoza, Raphael A.; Fornari, Fabio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...
