predictions of a forward-looking model of inflation. Wealth effects of public debt could also affect inflation, as posited by the … fiscal theory of the price level, but we do not find supportive evidence. The results suggest that the risk of a debt-inflation … inflation. …

-causes inflation in the euro area. Based on data from 1970 to 2006 and forecasting horizons of up to 12 quarters, there is surprisingly … power of money growth for inflation is substantially lower in more recent sample periods compared to the 1970s and 1980s …. This cautions against using money-based inflation models anchored in very long samples for policy advice. …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …

inflation when there is no perceived commitment to reduce the fiscal deficit. The model is based on a modified version of the … current consumption leads to an equal increase in inflation. The timing of this increase varies with the size of the deficit … inflation. Three policy conclusions are offered. …

some of the area's institutional features, which may impart considerable persistence to area-wide inflation, caution … against shifting to conventional inflation targeting. But the time series evidence also seems to point to a relatively loose … connection between variations in nominal money growth and inflation in the short to medium run. As a consequence, effective …

geared at containing inflation while also seeking to engender a sustainable reduction in interest rates. …

capacity in 2007–08, leading to accelerating inflation. The demand expansion, fed by fiscal and income policies and a capital …-inflow driven surge in money and credit growth, in combination with rising food and energy prices, gradually lifted CPI inflation to …