business cycle variance and about 25 percent of the variance of inflation. …

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for …-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest … inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed …

the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation …, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the …

inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of …

This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not … frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly … half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro …