countries with low pre-crisis inflation and hard pegs have been at least narrowly successful for countries in deeper disarray …) monetary aggregate targeting rarely serves as a coherent framework for floats; informal or full-fledged inflation targeting …

We develop a semi-structural new-Keynesian open-economy model, with separate food and non-food inflation dynamics, for …-relevant exercises. First, we filter international and Kenyan data (on output, inflation and its components, exchange rates and interest … inflation. Third, we perform an out-of-sample forecast to identify where the economy—and therefore policy—was likely headed …