unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the … forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors-real GDP changes (?Okun‘s Law?), monetary and … dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the split …

trap if unemployment lowers household wealth below the cost of skills acquisition. …