unemployment, including the sharp rise in U.S. long-term unemployment during the Great Recession of 2007-09. About 75% of the … forecast error variance of unemployment is accounted for by cyclical factors-real GDP changes (?Okun‘s Law?), monetary and … dispersion of industry-level stock returns, account for the remaining 25 percent. For U.S. long-term unemployment the split …

-term unemployed. In this paper, we use an incomplete-market model with search unemployment to evaluate the macro-economic and welfare … German unemployment insurance system and resulted in a significant reduction in unemployment benefits for the long …-run (noncyclical) unemployment rate in Germany by 1.4 percentage points. We also find that the welfare of employed households increases …