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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?
Balakrishnan, Ravi; Dao, Mai; Sole, Juan; Zook, Jeremy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242381
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Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels
Choi, Sangyup; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242392
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Tests of German Resilience
Bornhorst, Fabian; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142028
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Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Anand, Rahul; Cheng, Kevin C.; Rehman, Sidra; Zhang, Longmei - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142066
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Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy
Lusinyan, Lusine; Muir, Dirk - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
Wide-ranging structural reforms are underway in Italy, aimed at addressing key bottlenecks in the product and labor markets. Our analysis, based on the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), attempts to quantify the potential gains to the economy from a comprehensive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142132
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Cross-Cutting Themes in Employment Experiences during the Crisis
Vamvakidis, Athanasios; Vitek, Francis; Nkusu, Mwanza; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
, and Sweden. These economies represent a wide range of labor market institutions, policy responses, and outcomes to the … the interaction between the nature of the shocks and differences in the structure and institutions of each countryâ …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142213
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Emerging Market Business Cycles; The Role of Labor Market Frictions
Boz, Emine; Durdu, Ceyhun Bora; Li, Nan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
Emerging economies are characterized by higher consumption and real wage variability relative to output and a strongly countercyclical current account. A real business cycle model of a small open economy that embeds a Mortensen-Pissarides type of search-matching frictions and countercyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242182
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Growth and Employment in the Dominican Republic; Options for a Job-Rich Growth
Abdullaev, Umidjon; Estevao, Marcello - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
The Dominican Republic has posted high rates of output and productivity growth, but labor market indicators have remained weak during the past 20 years. This paper documents these trends, showing that the rapid productivity growth originates in a few sectors, while the bulk of job creation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242228
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Chronicle of a Decline Foretold; Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
Das, Mitali; N'Diaye, Papa M - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242230
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Dissecting Saving Dynamics; Measuring Wealth, Precautionary, and Credit Effects
Carroll, Christopher; Sommer, Martin; Slacalek, Jiri - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242291