This paper estimates the magnitude of key effects on the real economy from financial sector stress. We focus on the short-run feedback effect from market-based indicators of financial sector risk to the real economy through the credit channel, and estimate this effect on an economy-wide (macro)...

France’s near–term economic outlook is moderately positive, but clouded by risks from the global environment. The government’s reformist intentions provide an historic opportunity to place France onto a sustained higher growth path with greater opportunities for all....

A detailed assessment report on the observance of the Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems-International Organization of Securities Commissions recommendations for China’s Securities Settlement Systems and Central Counterparties is presented. The bond market comprises the interbank...

This paper assesses implementation of the International Organization of Securities Commissions' (IOSCO) objectives and principles of securities regulation in Spain. Spain exhibits a high level of implementation of principles. The legal framework is robust and provides the Comisión Nacional de...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that problems in the housing and financial markets over the past year have combined to slow the United States’ economy substantially. As the residential investment downturn accelerated and national indices of housing prices started falling,...

Uruguay’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Modification, Waiver of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria are discussed. Growth remains robust, inflation is subdued, and the external position continues to strengthen, with buoyant exports and...

South Africa has made substantial progress in addressing the recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program and is continuing to build upon these accomplishments. The Financial Services Board and Department of Trade and Industry both are organizations with the legal authority to...

Singapore’s financial sector, which is dominated by the banking sector, remains robust despite a series of economic downturns and substantial asset price declines. Economic developments in the past few years have highlighted Singapore’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks, including...

This paper focuses on the use of participatory notes (PNs) by foreign investors, as a conduit for portfolio flows into Indian equity markets for more than a decade. The broadening of India's foreign investor base, in recent years, has a bias towards hedge funds/unregistered foreign investors who...

We assess the spot price forecasting performance of 10 commodity futures at various horizons up to two years and test whether this performance is affected by market conditions. We reject efficient markets based on in-sample tests but, out-of-sample, we find that the forecast from the futures...