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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?
Balakrishnan, Ravi; Dao, Mai; Sole, Juan; Zook, Jeremy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015
The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242381
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Tests of German Resilience
Bornhorst, Fabian; Mody, Ashoka - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142028
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Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Anand, Rahul; Cheng, Kevin C.; Rehman, Sidra; Zhang, Longmei - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142066
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Cross-Cutting Themes in Employment Experiences during the Crisis
Vamvakidis, Athanasios; Vitek, Francis; Nkusu, Mwanza; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
The human cost of the recent global crisis is reflected in its impact on the labor market. Explaining why economies with similar downturns had very different employment trends can help design policies to reduce such costs and improve labor markets. This paper analyzes the recent employment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142213
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Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession
Erceg, Christopher J.; Levin, Andrew - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
In this paper, we provide compelling evidence that cyclical factors account for the bulk of the post-2007 decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate. We then proceed to formulate a stylized New Keynesian model in which labor force participation is essentially acyclical during...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011123858
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Chronicle of a Decline Foretold; Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
Das, Mitali; N'Diaye, Papa M - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242230
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Okun's Law; Fit at 50?
Ball, Laurence M.; Leigh, Daniel; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in … the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242241
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What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables
Andrle, Michal - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790260
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Unemployment and Labor Market Issues in Algeria
Furceri, Davide - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
The aim of this paper is to analyze unemployment and labor market developments in Algeria and assess the factors that … rigid labor market are the main factors behind the still high level of unemployment, particularly among the youth …. Simulation analyses, based on the results on the relation between labor market institutions and unemployment, show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790348
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Does Public-Sector Employment Fully Crowd Out Private-Sector Employment?
Behar, Alberto; Mok, Junghwan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus and Central Asia. These countries simultaneously display high unemployment rates, low …-sector employment rates or unemployment rates on two measures of public-sector employment point to full crowding out. This means that … rates and do not reduce overall unemployment rates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790351