This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...

This paper describes a new approach to pricing government deposit guarantees that uses techniques of stochastic process switching employed in the recent literature on exchange rate determination. Our model avoids inconsistent assumptions about the information available to investors and the...

This note assesses the relative efficiency of different tax bases in an open economy. If terms of trade effects are large, lump-sum taxation may be inferior to distortionary consumption or wage taxes. This result is demonstrated analytically using a simple neoclassical model. An overlapping...

This paper examines the implications of European fiscal harmonization for the French economy using a general equilibrium model. The latter extends the overlapping generations simulation model of Auerbach and Kotlikoff in three ways. A well-developed external sector is included. Households face...

This note derives closed form solutions for exchange rates in terms of fundamentals within a fully credible band exchange rate regime when the fundamentals are driven by Brownian motion and multiple point processes. The inclusion of point processes allows one to relax quite substantially the...

We study empirically daily French and German interest rate changes since the Basle-Nyborg agreement of September 1987. In particular, we ask whether the shock associated with German unification altered the degree of leadership of German monetary policy in the ERM. We conclude that Germany’s...

This paper examines the impacts on welfare, savings, labor supply, and the government budget of several possible reforms of the Polish pension and unemployment benefit systems. The framework of analysis is a life cycle simulation model of household consumption, labor supply and retirement...