Exchange rate flexibility has facilitated an impressively fast insertion of the Czech koruna and the Polish zloty into the global currency market. However, exchange rate volatility patterns differ: Lower volatility is observed for the koruna against the euro relative to the U.S. dollar, while...

This paper analyzes macroeconomic determinants of the foreign exchange risk premium in two Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries that peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The analysis is based on the stochastic discount factor methodology, which...

This paper compares the impact of shocks to U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads on domestic interest rates and exchange rates across several emerging market economies with different exchange rate regimes. Consistent with conventional priors, the results indicate that interest...

The paper presents an N-country model with stock markets, in which a closed-form solution for the real exchange rate is derived. Risky asset prices and allocation of risky assets among countries are determined endogenously. Such a framework allows an analysis of how fundamental parameters, such...

This paper uses a DSGE model to examine whether including the exchange rate explicitly in the central bank's policy reaction function can improve macroeconomic performance. It is found that including an element of exchange rate smoothing in the policy reaction function is helpful both for...

Rapidly rising dollarization and numerous related financial crises in recent years have heightened the need for policy action. This paper contributes to the policy debate by presenting a common analytic framework that examines the roots of de facto financial dollarization under different...

The notable rebound of U.S. manufacturing activity following the Great Recession has raised the question of whether the sector might be experiencing a renaissance. Using panel regressions, we find that a depreciating real exchange rate, an increasing spread in natural gas prices between the...

This 2012 Article IV Consultation discusses that the economy of Poland fared well throughout the crisis. The growth was robust and well balanced in 2011. The banking sector remained profitable and well capitalized. Declining provisioning boosted profitability and the average capital adequacy...

Strong economic fundamentals, robust policy framework, and a sustained track record of excellent policy implementation have facilitated the maintenance of orderly economic conditions in Mexico even amidst the substantial external volatility during the global crisis. Executive Directors welcomed...

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...