This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that since the robust recovery from the global financial crisis, Singapore’s growth momentum has eased and become more erratic. Growth decelerated to 1¼ percent in 2012 before picking up sharply in the first half of 2013. This reflects...

We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and...

Denmark’s flexicurity model has performed well during the crisis. The actions and the improvement in economic conditions have restored overall stability to the banking system. Private consumption has been dented by the decline in housing prices and net household wealth. Exports have...

This Selected Issues paper on Portugal reviews the considerations regarding productivity slowdown. The favorable evolution of income growth from the 1970s to the mid-1990s in Portugal was associated with above-average productivity growth but also reflected a more moderate decline in the amount...

This paper examines the macroeconomic impact of migration on income convergence in the EU's New Member States (NMS). The paper focuses on cross-border mobility of labor and examines the implications for policymakers with the help of a general equilibrium model. It finds that cross-border labor...

Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience...

Based on the economic literature, various policy measures and institutions in the product and labor markets that increase growth and employment are studied. From a cross-country approach, this study finds a significant relationship between Vertical Fiscal Imbalances (VFIs) and fiscal performance...

The paper examines the consequences of fiscal consolidation in times of persistently low growth and high unemployment by estimating medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted recessions (PR) in a sample of 17 OECD countries. Based on Jorda’s (2005) local projection methodology, we...

This paper presents some facts on China’s role in the world economy and measures the impact of China’s growth on growth in the rest of the world in the short and long term. Short-run estimates based on VARs and error-correction models suggest that spillover effects of...