The role of exchange rate flexibility in the periphery of the gold standard has been grossly overlooked. This paper builds a new dataset on trade-weighed exchange rates for the period 1870-1913 and finds that large currency movements in periphery countries operating inconvertible paper-money and...

This paper analyses the fiscal effects of armed conflict and terrorism on low- and middle-income countries. An analysis of 22 conflict episodes shows that armed conflict is associated with lower growth and higher inflation, and has adverse effects on tax revenues and investment. It also leads to...

As developing economies become richer, they seek to contract with the global economy in increasingly complex ways. Dealing with that complexity often implies the need to renegotiate contracts. However, such recontracting is viewed with concern, particularly by market participants. At the same...

This paper analyzes various indicators of the U.S. international investment position from a portfolio perspective. The 1990s saw a decline in home bias, which, coupled with rapid financial deepening, led to a large increase in gross international investment holdings. The home bias of non-U.S....

In the late 1980s Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago found themselves in severe economic difficulties. Their ensuing economic strategies were all market-based, featured fiscal contraction and trade liberalization, multilateral support loans and, later on, tax and financial sector...

Recent developments have increased questions about vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEE) that are experiencing credit booms. This paper analyzes the role of foreign-owned banks in these credit booms. The results show that the CEE countries depend on foreign banks, and...

In addition to transferring about 16 percent of GDP from exporters to importers, Uzbekistan’s quasi-fiscal multiple exchange rate regime generates identifiable welfare losses of 2-8 percent of GDP on import markets and up to 15 percent on export markets. These excess burdens have increased...

This paper assesses Vietnam’s 2001 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF), and a Request for Waiver and Modification of Performance Criteria. Economic performance has been positive so far in 2001, under the first-year PRGF-supported...

This Selected Issues paper paints a picture of the Indian economy that has made great strides, but has more to do to accelerate growth and reduce poverty. The paper assesses empirically whether India has entered a new phase of higher trend growth. Two alternative methodologies are used to...