Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for...

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm...

The empirical study shows that the equilibrium real exchange rate in Mauritius has been affected by the terms of trade, as well as by other fundamental determinants. It assesses the challenges posed to Mauritius’s trade performance by the expiration of the preferential trade arrangements....

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta’s economic recovery is gaining traction, owing in large part to cyclical strength and some structural change. A public investment boom, financed largely by grants from the European Union, reignited growth in 2005. A modest recovery...

This paper analyzes Bolivia’s growth performance with a focus on the regional and sectoral patterns of growth, and examines the sources of growth. It discusses the evolution of the hydrocarbon sector, its importance in the economy, and reforms. It also analyzes the intergovernmental...

This paper discusses 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights slower economic performance and financial risks in Botswana. The output growth is expected to remain broadly unchanged in 2013 as strong nonmining sector growth would offset the subdued mining output. Banks’ high exposure to...

Strong fundamentals and countercyclical policies have helped Malaysia during the global financial crisis. Executive Directors welcomed the authorities' challenge to make progress toward economic growth and structural transformation. Directors welcomed the consolidation effort in the 2010 budget,...

This Selected Issues paper discusses Ireland’s trade and financial linkages with key partner countries. The paper uses a vector autoregression to examine the impact of shocks to partner country GDP and shocks to Irish competitiveness on Irish GDP. Two main findings are that shocks to U.S....

The staff report for the 2008 Article IV Consultation of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia discusses economic developments and policies. The new government’s economic program aims to raise growth further, but does not address these vulnerabilities. Plans to increase the central...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks—and other foreign disturbances—in explaining Mexican output fluctuations. It identifies the dynamic response of...