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Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?

Balakrishnan, Ravi; Dao, Mai; Sole, Juan; Zook, Jeremy - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015

The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242381

Uncertainty and Unemployment: The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Choi, Sangyup; Loungani, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2015

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and … measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic … vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242392

Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources; Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

Ghosh, Atish R.; Zalduendo, Juan; Goretti, Manuela; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825617

Exchange Rate Regime Transitions

Masson, Paul R. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000

The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825618

Crude Oil Prices; Trends and Forecast

Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825666

Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?

Nowak, M.; Hviding, Ketil; Ricci, Luca Antonio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

This paper studies the role of an increase in foreign exchange reserves in reducing currency volatility for emerging market countries. The study employs a panel of 28 countries over the period 1986-2002. Several control variables are introduced in the regressions to account for other factors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825686

The Efficiency of the Japanese Equity Market

Nagayasu, Jun - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

Using the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model, this paper studies the efficiency of the Japanese equity market by examining the statistical properties of the return and volatility of the Nikkei 225. It shows that both follow a long range dependence, which stands against the efficient market hypothesis (EMH)....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825859

Empirical Modeling of Contagion; A Review of Methodologies

Dungey, Mardi; Fry, Renee; Martin, Vance; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

The existing literature suggests a number of alternative methods to test for the presence of contagion during financial market crises. This paper reviews those methods and shows how they are related in a unified framework. A number of extensions are also suggested that allow for multivariate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825971

Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption; Weathering Uncharted Waters

Székely, István P.; Kóbor, Ãdám - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001-2003. By using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The estimation results show not only that volatilities are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826312

Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity

Barnhill, Theodore M.; Kopits, George - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826365

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