This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper...

The economic slowdown as a result of the global crisis has been severe, and the recovery has not yet taken hold. Despite ample buffers, including large fiscal space and strong international reserves, the policy response to the crisis has been constrained. Inflation has resurfaced as a concern...

The empirical study shows that the equilibrium real exchange rate in Mauritius has been affected by the terms of trade, as well as by other fundamental determinants. It assesses the challenges posed to Mauritius’s trade performance by the expiration of the preferential trade arrangements....

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is faced with the task of stabilizing and reviving a devastated economy after years of military conflicts, sanctions, and economic mismanagement. A weakened institutional capacity and the still evolving political situation is a cause for concern. A short-term...

This paper discusses the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia’s Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria and Rephasing of the Program. The 2007 fiscal deficit target increased modestly to 1 percent of GDP. Taxes were cut and budget...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tunisia’s sound economic policies and pragmatic approach to structural reforms continue to bear fruit, as evidenced by strong growth and improved social indicators. Real GDP growth averaged 5 percent a year while the macroeconomic and...

Iran's 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights Fourth Five-Year Development Plan (FFYDP) and the Twenty-Year Vision. The country's real GDP growth reached 5½ percent a year on average, unemployment declined, and macroeconomic indicators improved significantly, supported by favorable oil...

This Article IV Consultation reports that the economic growth of Mauritania is robust, which reflected prudent economic management, sustained donor support, and the beginning of oil production. Executive Directors observed that the return of constitutional order to Mauritania has established a...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ghana’s growth has remained strong, fuelled by both the private and public sectors. The Ghanaian economy maintained strong growth of about 6½ percent in 2007 and the first months of 2008. The private sector has responded positively to...