“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...

We use daily data on bank reserves and overnight interest rates to document a striking pattern in the high-frequency behavior of the U.S. market for federal funds: depository institutions tend to hold more reserves during the last few days of each “reserve maintenance period,” when the...

We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte Carlo simulations and household surveys, we find that the technique gives rise to biases in poverty estimates, the sign and magnitude of which...

Consensus estimates put the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) at about four years (Rogoff, 1996). However, conventional least squares estimates of half-lives are biased downward. Accordingly, as a preferred measure of the persistence of real exchange rate shocks, this...

The short-term objectives are being met, but medium-term targets and sustainability have to be worked on. The impressive fiscal adjustment evident since the crisis erupted is continuing. The Executive Directors commend the Greek government’s determination to focus on overdue spending...

Rigidities in Greece’s product and labor markets leading to economic imbalances and the significance of reforms to these markets are played out in the first paper. The second paper describes the problems, progress to date, and agenda for work in Greece’s revenue administration and...

Explanations of the large current account deficits for the euro area periphery and the Baltics in the run up to the crisis revolve around two main factors: deteriorating export performance or demand driven booms. We add that there were important movements in transfers and net income balances....

Greece’s deep recession has continued unabated, with the economy struggling to gain traction against domestic political instability and weak external conditions. Stronger internal devaluation is now under way, reflecting the interaction of labor market liberalization with the already weak...