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Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources; Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections
Ghosh, Atish R.; Zalduendo, Juan; Goretti, Manuela; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007
This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825617
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The Efficiency of the Japanese Equity Market
Nagayasu, Jun - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
statistical properties of the return and volatility of the Nikkei 225. It shows that both follow a long range dependence, which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825859
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Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption; Weathering Uncharted Waters
Székely, István P.; Kóbor, Ãdám - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
The paper analyzes foreign exchange market volatility in four Central European EU accession countries in 2001-2003. By … using a Markov regime-switching model, it identifies two regimes representing high- and low-volatility periods. The … the Czech koruna-Slovak koruna) in the high-volatility period. The paper concludes by discussing the policy implications …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826312
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An Assessment of Estimates of Term Structure Models for the United States
Medeiros, Carlos I.; He, Ying - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
The paper assesses estimates of term structure models for the United States. To this end, this paper first describes the mathematics underlying two types of term structure models, namely the Nelson-Siegel and Cox, Ingersoll and Ross family of models, and the estimation techniques. It then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369442
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On the Estimation of Term Structure Models and An Application to the United States
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010
This paper discusses the estimation of models of the term structure of interest rates. After reviewing the term structure models, specifically the Nelson-Siegel Model and Affine Term- Structure Model, this paper estimates the terms structure of Treasury bond yields for the United States with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727797
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Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates
Leon, H. L.; Najarian, Serineh - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper examines whether deviations from PPP are stationary in the presence of nonlinearity, and whether the adjustment toward PPP is symmetric from above and below. Using alternative nonlinear models, our results support mean reversion and asymmetric adjustment dynamics. We find differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769039
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Exchange Rate Regime Transitions
Masson, Paul R. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
The “hollowing-out,” or “two poles” hypothesis is tested in the context of a Markov chain model of exchange rate transitions. In particular, two versions of the hypothesis—that hard pegs are an absorbing state, or that fixes and floats form a closed set, with no transitions to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825618
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Crude Oil Prices; Trends and Forecast
Krichene, Noureddine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825666
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Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?
Nowak, M.; Hviding, Ketil; Ricci, Luca Antonio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
This paper studies the role of an increase in foreign exchange reserves in reducing currency volatility for emerging … introduced in the regressions to account for other factors affecting exchange rate volatility (monetary and external indicators … exchange rate regime, since the regime can affect both the level of reserves and exchange rate volatility. The results provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825686
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Empirical Modeling of Contagion; A Review of Methodologies
Dungey, Mardi; Fry, Renee; Martin, Vance; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
The existing literature suggests a number of alternative methods to test for the presence of contagion during financial market crises. This paper reviews those methods and shows how they are related in a unified framework. A number of extensions are also suggested that allow for multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825971