This staff report on United Kingdom’s (UK) 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic policies and development. The UK economy grew by about ¼ percent in 2012. Net trade reduced growth by 0.6 percentage points of GDP, the biggest drag since 2005, and well above staff projections....

After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the...

Using monthly data for a set of variables, we examine the out-of-sample performance of various variance/covariance models and find that no model has consistently outperformed the others. We also show that it is possible to increase the probability mass toward the tails and to match reasonably...

The paper proposes an algorithm that uses forecast encompassing tests for combining forecasts. The algorithm excludes a forecast from the combination if it is encompassed by another forecast. To assess the usefulness of this approach, an extensive empirical analysis is undertaken using a U.S....

This paper analyzes whether uniform tariffs give rise to the highest welfare compared with tariffs that either escalate or de-escalate along the value chain of production. We show that countries may be better off with de-escalating tariffs where tariff rates are higher on intermediate inputs and...

Paraguay’s economy recently experienced particularly large output swings. Economic policies will play a critical role in raising investment by making sure that macroeconomic stability is maintained. The spillovers from the agricultural sector to the rest of the economy are limited. The...

This technical note discusses the banking system structure, performance, and medium-term challenges for Switzerland. The note discusses that the Swiss banking sector has been undergoing a substantial consolidation over the last 10 years, but retains a rich collection of institutional types...

The global financial crisis hit Denmark hard, and the recovery has been slow and unsteady. Denmark’s slow growth predates the recent economic crisis, and the economy has underperformed its regional peers. The current account remains in surplus, largely reflecting weak domestic demand...