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In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina
Simone, Alejandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2001
Time series on economic activity in developing countries, in particular real GDP, are reported with important lags. Therefore, it is useful to construct indicators that coincide or lead the actual direction and level of economic activity. A general methodology to construct these indicators is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604906
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Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators; An Application to Jordan
Mongardini, Joannes; Saadi-Sedik, Tahsin - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605176
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Jamaica; Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2008
Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245592
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Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia; A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis
Saxena, Sweta Chaman; Cerra, Valerie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248271
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The Monetary Model Strikes Back; Evidence From the World
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651
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Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?
Lombardi, Domenico; Bond, Stephen - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
This study investigates the relationship between uncertainty and investment using U.K. data at different levels of aggregation. Motivated by a comparative econometric analysis using a firm-level panel and aggregate time-series data, we analyze the implications of aggregating nonlinear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264173
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Oil Prices, External Income, and Growth; Lessons From Jordan
Raissi, Mehdi; Mohaddes, Kamiar - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic inflation rates. It is shown …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009401201
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The Behavior of Conventional and Islamic Bank Deposit Returns in Malaysia and Turkey
Charap, Joshua; Cevik, Serhan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
. The analysis shows that conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns exhibit long-run cointegration and the time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009203548
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Measuring a Roller Coaster; Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap
Billmeier, Andreas - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825681
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Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System
Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693