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Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises
Schimmelpfennig, Axel; Roubini, Nouriel; Manasse, Paolo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248202
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Central Bank Involvement in Banking Crises in Latin America
Jácome, Luis Ignacio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
This paper reviews the nature of central bank involvement in 26 episodes of financial disturbance and crises in Latin America from the mid-1990s onwards. It finds that, except in a handful of cases, large amounts of central bank money were used to cope with large and small crises alike. Pouring...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264086
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Managing Financial Crises; Recent Experience and Lessons for Latin America
Kincaid, G. Russell; Collyns, Charles - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005824823
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Assessing Early Warning Systems; How Have they Worked in Practice?
Berg, Andrew; Borensztein, Eduardo; Pattillo, Catherine A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768990
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Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises
Salgado, Ranil; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Caramazza, Francesco - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
financial linkages in inducing financial crises for a sample of 61 emerging market and industrial countries. A panel probit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769104
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Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach
Abiad, Abdul - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005769232
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Spillovers Through Banking Centers; A Panel Data Analysis
International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2000
To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crisis we examine a panel of BIS data on bank flows to 30 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599548
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Corporate Financial Structure and Financial Stability
Stone, Mark R.; Davis, E. P. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
This paper uses flow-of-funds and balance sheet data to analyze the impact of financial crises on corporate financing and GDP in a range of countries. Post-crisis GDP contractions are mainly accounted for by declines in investment and inventory and are more severe for emerging market countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599642
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The Big Split: Why Did Output Trajectories in the ASEAN-4 Diverge after the Global Financial Crisis?
Isnawangsih, Agnes; Klyuev, Vladimir; Zhang, Longmei - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
impact on more open economies (Malaysia and Thailand). Second, countercyclical fiscal stimulus in Indonesia and the … Philippines was larger and was sustained longer. Third, idiosyncratic factors pushed output up in Indonesia and down in Thailand …, however, was not uniform. Even in a relatively homogenous group of countries such as ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790382
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Infrastructure and Income Distribution in ASEAN-5; What are the Links?
Seneviratne, Dulani; Sun, Yan - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
Adequate infrastructure has long been viewed as an important factor in economic development. Based on regressions covering 76 advanced and emerging market economies, this paper estimates the impact of infrastructure and investment on income distribution. It finds that better infrastructure, both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242245