Spillovers from South Africa into the other members of the Souther Africa Customs Union (known as the BLNS for Botstwana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland) are substantial reflecting sizeable real and financial interlinkages. However, shocks to real GDP growth in South Africa do not seem to...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s economy has underperformed other emerging markets and commodity exporters, exacerbating South Africa’s already-high levels of unemployment (25 percent) and inequality, and contributing to rising social tensions. At...

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that South Africa’s growth has slowed in recent years, specifically relative to other emerging markets. Although weak trading partners’ growth contributed to the slowdown, increasingly binding structural constraints, such as protracted...

This paper develops a methodology for estimating a safe public debt level that would allow countries to remain below a maximum sustainable debt limit, taking into account the impact of uncertainty. Our analysis implies that fiscal policy should target a debt level well below the debt ceiling to...

This paper provides an analysis of the cyclical stance of fiscal policy in Latin America. Its contributions include developing a new measure of the cyclicality of fiscal policy, careful analysis of the statistical significance of results, and accounting for the effect of commodity prices on...

With fiscal adjustment proceeding quickly in Bulgaria and given the weak economic growth environment, there is keen interest in making the budget composition more growth friendly. This paper quantifies the short-term impact of fiscal policy on economic activity in Bulgaria using econometric and...

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. Using a 5-region version of the GIMF, this paper illustrates the model’s...

This paper discusses Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Third Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Applicability of a Performance Criterion. Financial sector indicators through end-March 2013 suggest that the banking system remains profitable and adequately capitalized at...

The short-term objectives are being met, but medium-term targets and sustainability have to be worked on. The impressive fiscal adjustment evident since the crisis erupted is continuing. The Executive Directors commend the Greek government’s determination to focus on overdue spending...

This paper discusses Ireland’s Fiscal Transparency Assessment. The Irish government has ambitious plans to improve further the timeliness, quality, and comprehensiveness of its budgets, statistics, and accounts. Ireland has the capacity and information to bring its fiscal transparency...