The cotton sector in Mali is facing major challenges to overcome, with low export prices, technical hurdles, and a poorly performing state-owned cotton ginner. Some reforms, most notably with regard to the setting of the farmgate procurement price, have already been undertaken, but more is...

This Selected Issues paper for Rwanda reports the growth strategy described in the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The PRSP constitutes a critical effort aimed at generating poverty-reducing economic growth. Sustained growth in the primary sector serves as an engine of growth in the...

Since its independence in 1975, the Union of Comoros has been deeply affected by political and institutional crises. Resolution of the separatist crisis on the island of Anjouan and subsequent national consolidation has constituted a historic turning point. The government has begun a...

Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...

This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and...

We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper...

This study investigates the relationship between uncertainty and investment using U.K. data at different levels of aggregation. Motivated by a comparative econometric analysis using a firm-level panel and aggregate time-series data, we analyze the implications of aggregating nonlinear...

This paper presents a multivariate (MV) methodology for obtaining measures of excess demand that can facilitate discussion of monetary policy issues and improve policy decisions. Using data for the Czech Republic, a growing economy undergoing major structural change, it shows how the use of more...

We study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, we classify them into various event types. We then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability...