We measure bank vulnerability in emerging markets using the distance-to-default, a risk-neutral indicator based on Merton's (1974) structural model of credit risk. The indicator is estimated using equity prices and balance-sheet data for 38 banks in 14 emerging market countries. Results show it...

The global financial crisis has highlighted the potential of financial conditions for influencing real economic activity. We examine the linkages between the financial and real sectors in the euro area, finding that (i) bank loan supply responds negatively to declines in bank soundness; (ii) a...

We analyze the link between nonperforming loans (NPL) and macroeconomic performance using two complementary approaches. First, we investigate the macroeconomic determinants of NPL in panel regressions and confirm that adverse macroeconomic developments are associated with rising NPL. Second, we...

This simulation-based paper investigates the impact of different methods of dynamic provisioning on bank soundness and shows that this increasingly popular macroprudential tool can smooth provisioning costs over the credit cycle and lower banks’ probability of default. In addition, the...

The Mongolian financial system is dominated by commercial banks. The nonbank financial sector, including insurance and the stock market, is small. The current level of dollarization exposes Mongolia’s financial system to risk. The authorities are in the process of establishing the...

The 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that the near-term outlook for Belgium is challenging, with real GDP expected to drop by about 3 percent in 2009 and a gradual recovery projected for 2010. The unemployment rate will continue to rise in 2010, and inflation pressures are expected to...

This Article IV Consultation reports that Malta’s economy continues to perform well amidst considerable turbulence in the euro area. While spillovers have remained contained to date, Malta’s large financial sector and highly open economy heighten contagion and financial stability...

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

This paper discusses key findings of the Detailed Assessment of Compliance of the Basel Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision for Tunisia. The findings reveal that the Central Bank of Tunisia (Banque Centrale de Tunisi/BCT) monitors closely the supervised institutions. Its monitoring...

This Financial System Stability Assessment on Turkey discusses macroeconomic development and trend in the financial system. The financial system does not appear to face major immediate threats, but vulnerabilities remain. Turkey remains dependent on capital inflows and thus on international...