EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. Sri Lanka’s economy has navigated recent market turbulence relatively well. Growth has remained solid, inflation is in mid-single digits, and the current account deficit has narrowed. From mid-May, the exchange rate came under pressure as market expectations of...

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sri Lanka’s 2009 Stand-By Arrangement was initiated at the onset of the global financial crisis. It also coincided with the ending of the country’s decades-old civil conflict. This unusual combination of circumstances made the program subject to very high economic...

KEY ISSUES Context. Macroeconomic performance has generally exceeded expectations. Real GDP grew 7.3 percent for 2013, up from 6.3 percent in 2012. Inflation declined to below 5 percent, and the external current account balance has improved. Private credit growth has been slow, however, a number...

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first chapter on monetary policy transmission examines the channels through which innovations to policy variables—policy rate or monetary aggregates—affect such macroeconomic variables as output and inflation in Sri Lanka. The effectiveness of monetary policy...

In this paper we examine the channels through which innovations to policy variables— policy rates or monetary aggregates—affect such macroeconomic variables as output and inflation in Sri Lanka. The effectiveness of monetary policy instruments is judged through the prism of...

In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka’s potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusively on information in a single series, the model-based approaches allow...

This study examines external and domestic influences on Latin America’s economic performance over the past decade and a half. It notes that over the past few years, macroeconomic policies have strengthened and structural reforms have been implemented. Together with a favorable external...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Morocco has been volatile and insufficient to significantly reduce poverty and unemployment. Growth averaged 3 percent over the last decade. It has been volatile because of the dependency of agriculture on rainfalls. In 2004,...

This Selected Issues paper examines the main factors explaining Ukraine’s growth performance so far, assesses whether the recent recovery is sustainable, and provides a quantitative analysis of long-term growth prospects. It finds that the recent recovery is not yet self-sustaining and...

This paper reviews economic developments in Lithuania during 1993–96. Economic growth resumed in 1994 and gained further momentum in 1995; real GDP increased by an estimated 3 percent in 1995. Growth in 1995 was driven by the industrial sector, while agriculture performed poorly. The...