The “middle-income trap” is the phenomenon of hitherto rapidly growing economies stagnating at middle-income levels and failing to graduate into the ranks of high-income countries. In this study we examine the middle-income trap as a special case of growth slowdowns, which are identified as...

This paper studies the linkage between structural coherence and economic growth. Structural coherence is defined as the degree that a country's industrial structure optimally reflects its factor endowment fundamentals. The paper found that at least for the overall capital, the shares of capital...

This Selected Issues paper on Canada examines economic development and policies. Capital ratios before the crisis have been a key determinant of bank performance during the turmoil; and Canadian banks had ample capital. Specifically, most banks with critically low capital at end-2006 later...

This paper estimates the extent of spare capacity in the U.K. economy using a range of methodologies pointing to an output gap and the behavior of inflation during large output gaps. The usefulness of fiscal rules in supporting fiscal consolidation is generally positive, and a more permanent...

This Selected Issues paper discusses Ireland’s trade and financial linkages with key partner countries. The paper uses a vector autoregression to examine the impact of shocks to partner country GDP and shocks to Irish competitiveness on Irish GDP. Two main findings are that shocks to U.S....

This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks—and other foreign disturbances—in explaining Mexican output fluctuations. It identifies the dynamic response of...

This paper analyzes the weak growth performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 1980-2000 using an empirical model of long-run growth. The relative importance of the factors affecting growth is shown to vary across 16 MENA countries. In GCC countries, where oil revenues...

This Selected Issues paper studies Luxembourg’s economic growth performance of the past two decades with a view to shedding light on the growth prospects and fiscal implications. The paper investigates whether the recent weakness in activity is largely transitory or whether it heralds a...

We investigate sources of economic fluctuations in Chile during 1998-2007 within the framework of a standard neoclassical growth model with time-varying frictions (wedges). We analyze the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment, and government/trade wedges for business cycles in...

This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in...