This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that boom in private consumption in Iceland was facilitated by easing household credit conditions, tax cuts, rapidly rising housing and equity wealth, and an appreciating real exchange rate. As a result, the output gap peaked at over 5 percent in...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that Tonga’s real GDP growth is estimated to turn negative in FY06/07, declining by 3½ percent. The economy will continue to be subject to uncertainty and shocks. While economic growth should return to positive, albeit low, levels in the...

The IMF has approved an exceptional access Stand-By Arrangement for Latvia. The program is part of a coordinated international effort that has improved financial and economic stability. By early 2008, the fast growth has leveled off but severe vulnerabilities turned the slowdown into a crisis....

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Peru. The economy continued to perform well in 2004. Real GDP grew by 5.1 percent, inflation was 3.5 percent at end-December, and the fiscal deficit of the combined public sector narrowed to 1.1 percent of...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that real GDP in South Africa grew by 5 percent in 2006 and continued to grow vigorously in early 2007. Growth was driven by strong domestic demand, with private consumption and investment spending supported by continuing robust consumer and business...

This paper explores the role of exchange rates in emerging economies with inflation-targeting regimes, an issue that has become especially germane during the current episode of financial turmoil and volatile capital flows. Under inflation targeting, the interest rate is the main monetary policy...

Bank borrowers' currency mismatches often result from unhedged foreign currency borrowing in economies where there is significant dollarization, exposing the financial sector to disguised credit risk. In the absence of standard tools or guidelines to counteract this risk, countries have resorted...

Standard theory shows that sterilized foreign exchange interventions do not affect equilibrium prices and quantities, and that domestic and foreign currency denominated bonds are perfect substitutes. This paper shows that when fiscal policy is not sufficiently flexible in response to spending...

Fixed exchange rate regimes have come into disrepute, as their defense has become all but impossible. Yet, while a determined attack on a currency cannot be prevented or, ultimately, withstood, policies can reduce the vulnerability of a country to such attacks. The paper develops an analytical...