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Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on July 23, 2012, with the officials of Sudan on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245092
Did real overvaluation contribute to the 1991 currency crisis in India? This paper seeks an answer by constructing the equilibrium real exchange rate, using an error correction model and a technique developed by Gonzalo and Granger (1995). The results are affirmative and the evidence indicates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263897
Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263904
This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825803
exceptionally large short-term debt, precisely because a devaluation is not an option. In a more conventional fixed peg, it can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826111
specifically, as an anticipated devaluation under an exchange rate rule leads to well-known contractionary effects, an anticipated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826554
generally led to currency devaluation, measured as a decline in the value of the currency in terms of the trade-weighted nominal … effective exchange rate. The effect of inflation on devaluation, however, became weaker following the financial reforms … undertaken in the early 1980s. The effect of devaluation on inflation was not significant, and this result remained robust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826573
confidence loss in the exchange rate regime, the relative performance of net exporters suggests that expectations of devaluation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605336
Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the measurement techniques. In our study, the methods are given...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008680277
This paper discusses Ukraine’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and First Post-Program Monitoring. The Ukrainian economy has been in recession since mid-2012, and the outlook remains challenging. In January–September 2013, GDP contracted by 1¼ percent year-over-year, reflecting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242575