This paper investigates whether a regional bloc would enlarge or remain stagnant in size using a model where enlargement is the endogenous outcome of the interaction between the supply of and demand for membership. We show that a maximum size of the bloc exists beyond which the regional...

We revisit the question of the quantitative benefits of WTO trade agreements in a setup that is non-standard from the traditional trade policy point of view. We show that in a New Keynesian model, unilateral trade liberalization reduces welfare due to terms-of-trade deterioration, creating an...

Canada has experienced drastic changes in its economy during the global financial crisis. This Selected Issues paper discusses the evolution of equilibrium real home prices in key Canadian provinces in the post-crisis period, Canadian dollar movement during and after the global financial turmoil...

This Selected Issues paper on Kenya reviews Kenya’s external stability in a context where the exchange rate has strengthened and capital inflows are playing an increasingly important role. Kenya’s external current account deficit has widened, reflecting strong import volumes as...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the properties of the fiscal surplus rule, a key pillar of Chile’s macroeconomic framework. The findings suggest that the rule is near the volatility-minimizing efficiency frontier. The paper assesses the vulnerability of the Chilean banking system to...

This Selected Issues paper for Algeria analyzes the potential economic impact of Algeria’s Association Agreement with the European Union (AAEU). The paper lays out the major elements of Algeria’s AAEU and makes a comparison with other AAEUs. It discusses the potential economic...

Tunisia’s reliance on European countries for export earnings, tourism, remittances, and foreign direct investment inflows has remained high over the last decades. Remittances and tourism receipts have been broadly stable in percent of GDP, with somewhat more fluctuations in the latter...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that the lengthy expansion brought the Australian economy to a position of near full employment. Inflation had eased in late 2006 and early 2007, but accelerated in the second quarter. The current account deficit was 5½ percent of GDP in 2006. The...

The macroeconomic environment is sound, with low inflation and a comfortable external position, although the fiscal position remains a concern for the medium term. The authorities have successfully privatized and liberalized the telecommunications, energy, and transportation sectors. Moreover,...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that following an extended boom led by strong domestic demand, the slowdown in the United States has largely reflected a drag from residential investment as the housing market has weakened substantially. Unexpected weakness in business investment and...