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Buoyant Capital Spending and Worries Over Real Appreciation; Cold Facts From Algeria

Diallo, Oumar; Loko, Boileau; Kpodar, Kangni - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

The Government of Algeria has pursed a relatively expansionary fiscal policy in recent years, thanks to rising oil prices and revenues. The paper explores the potential effects of such a stance on real exchange rate and uncovers a relatively small appreciating effect of increased government...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825732

New Shocks, Exchange Rates and Equityprices

Cova, Pietro; Rebucci, Alessandro; Matsumoto, Akito; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

We study exchange rate and equity price dynamics, in general equilibrium, in the presence of news shocks about future productivity and monetary policy. We identify a condition under which these asset prices become more volatile without affecting the volatility of the underlying processes-a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825757

Determinants of Foreign Currency Borrowing in the New Member States of the EU

Rosenberg, Christoph B.; Tirpák, Marcel - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

The paper investigates the determinants of foreign currency borrowing by the private sector in the new member states of the European Union. We find that striking differences in patterns of foreign currency borrowing between countries are explained by the loan-to-deposit ratios, openness, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825762

Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments; How Well Have they Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?

Lee, Jungjin; Abiad, Abdul; Kannan, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009

The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER)....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825774

Monetary Independence in Emerging Markets; Does the Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference?

Philippon, Thomas; Zettelmeyer, Jeromin; Borensztein, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2001

This paper compares the impact of shocks to U.S. interest rates and emerging market bond spreads on domestic interest rates and exchange rates across several emerging market economies with different exchange rate regimes. Consistent with conventional priors, the results indicate that interest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825800

Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes

Perraudin, W. R. M.; Kumar, Manmohan S.; Moorthy, Uma - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2002

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825803

Aggregation of Economic Indicators Across Countries; Exchange Rate versus PPP Based GDP Weights

Schulze-Gattas, Marianne; Gulde, Anne Marie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 1992

Relative GDP shares are frequently used as weights in aggregations. In order to ensure that these weights reflect countries’ shares in real output, GDP data in national currencies should be converted into a common numeraire currency at purchasing power parity (PPP) rates. A review of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825834

Foreign Aid and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy

Turnovsky, Stephen J.; Tekin, Serpil; Cerra, Valerie - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

A dynamic dependent-economy model is developed to investigate the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign aid. If capital is perfectly mobile between sectors, untied aid has no longrun impact on the real exchange rate. A decline in the traded sector occurs because...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825842

What Do We Know About Namibia's Competitiveness

Miyajima, Ken - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

This paper evaluates Namibia's competitiveness using several traditional indicators; it concludes that, while the real effective exchange rate (REER) is in equilibrium at present?suggesting no imminent need for concern?the country may wish to improve its competitiveness by increasing educational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825853

The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries; The Case of Thailand

Tchakarov, Ivan; Elekdag, Selim - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would … effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit … of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825895