Emerging markets have experienced a sizeable decline in their neutral real interest rates until recently. In this paper we try to identify the main factors that contributed to it, with a focus on Brazil. We estimate an interval for Brazil’s time-varying neutral rate based on a range of...

The Slovak Republic’s 2005 Article IV Consultation reports that sound macroeconomic management and a wide range of fundamental structural reforms are supporting nominal convergence with European Union norms. Real GDP growth accelerated to 6 percent in 2005, driven by an improvement in the...

Despite the negative impact of the severe winter on agriculture, other indicators are pointing to a strong recovery. Exports are growing rapidly, fueled by the rebound in copper prices and a rapid growth in coal exports. Rephasing of purchases by combining the fifth and sixth reviews is...

This paper provides three policy lessons to take full advantage of the opportunity afforded by EU funds. The main features of the global integrated monetary and fiscal (GIMF) model and how it was modified to account for income convergence are discussed. The impact of EU funds as exhibited in the...

This Selected Issues paper for Indonesia uses a small structural macroeconomics model of the Indonesian economy to analyze the inflation outlook and monetary policy challenges. The Bank of Indonesia (BI) introduced its Inflation Targeting Framework in July 2005 with the goal to reduce inflation...

South Africa’s macroeconomic policies face a complicated task of balancing between supporting domestic demand and maintaining stability. The Selected Issues paper for South Africa discusses economic development and policies. Although the opening output gap and declining employment do call...

This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that boom in private consumption in Iceland was facilitated by easing household credit conditions, tax cuts, rapidly rising housing and equity wealth, and an appreciating real exchange rate. As a result, the output gap peaked at over 5 percent in...

This Selected Issues paper examines the acceleration of inflation over the past year in Chile, identifying domestic shocks to food and energy prices as main drivers. The paper uses the Jeanne-Rancière model to calculate Chile’s optimal ratio of international reserves to GDP. It analyzes the...

The Lebanese authorities have requested follow-up Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance with an access of 12.5 percent of quota to support their economic program. The 2006 war with Israel led to a political stalemate and repeated outbreaks of domestic fighting until the formation of a national...