This note analyzes the medium- and long-term prospects of the hydrocarbon sector as a source of growth. Substantial hydrocarbon and financial reserves implies a sizable upward shift in the sustainable expenditure path. Rather than suggesting a specific fiscal rule, four simple alternatives are...

This Selected Issues paper focuses on the reasons for the historically weak performance of Vanuatu. Among the key factors, growth has been hindered by substantial barriers to private sector development. Impediments include political uncertainty, high costs of doing business, poor and costly...

This note discusses Chile's macroeconomic policy framework, the role of institutions in Chile, policies over time, export specialization and economic growth, trade policy strategy and recent agreements, an overview of recent developments in capital markets, and corporate financing in Chile. The...

This Selected Issues paper focuses on policies to promote high, sustainable growth in Peru, the risks posed by dollarization, and key medium-term fiscal issues of decentralization and social security reform. The paper identifies the main impediments to output and employment growth and proposes...

This paper discusses Bhutan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The Royal Government of Bhutan has initiated the PRSP process as part of broader ongoing efforts to combat poverty. The main objective of the PRSP process is to strengthen the strategic framework for poverty reduction,...

This paper assesses the effectiveness of foreign aid in reducing poverty through its impact on human development indicators. We use a dataset of both bilateral aid and NGO aid flows. Our results show that NGO aid reduces infant mortality and does so more effectively than official bilateral aid....

The working age population is expected to grow faster in the Middle East than in any other region in the world between now and 2015—rising annually by 2.7 percent, or 10 million people. This demographic explosion presents the region with a major challenge in terms of providing jobs, incomes,...

This paper reviews Mongolia’s Economic Growth Support Poverty Reduction Strategy (EGSPRS) Implementation Progress Report 2004. Mongolia’s GDP grew by 5.6 percent in 2003, a fulfillment of the goal set out in the Main Guidelines for Economic and Social Development in 2003 to attain...

This primer aims to provide IMF macroeconomists with the essential information they need in situations where they must address issues concerning health sector policy and when they have significant macroeconomic implications. Such issues can also affect equity and growth and are fundamental to...

This study confirms a strong and robust relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa. Employing a panel of 46 countries covering the period 1972-97, the analysis finds that a 10 percent increase in per capita GDP leads to a 1 percent increase in life...