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Oil and the World Economy; Some Possible Futures
Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242343
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On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks; The Role of Storage
Unalmis, Deren; Unalmis, Ibrahim; Unsal, D. Filiz - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility … supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242253
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Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit
Valencia, Fabian - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
examines one particular channel at work: the supply of credit. It presents a model in which a bank, even if managed by risk …-neutral shareholders and subject to limited liability, can exhibit self-insurance, and thus loan supply contracts when uncertainty … credit supply is achieved by looking at the differential response of banks according to their level of capitalization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142078
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Revisiting Tourism Flows to the Caribbean: What is Driving Arrivals?
Laframboise, Nicole; Mwase, Nkunde; Park, Joonkyu; … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
The Caribbean share of the global tourism market has been declining. This study examines what is driving tourism flows. It estimates the determinants of tourism and explores variations based on sample differences, and also constructs a static nominal price comparison index. The paper finds that:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011123825
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The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy
Denis, Stephanie; Kannan, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790244
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Aggregate Stability and Balanced-Budget Rules
Ghilardi, Matteo; Rossi, Raffaele - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
It has been shown that under perfect competition and a Cobb-Douglas production function, a basic real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspot fluctuations when income tax rates are determined by a balanced-budget rule. This paper introduces in an otherwise standard real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790380
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Shock from Graying; Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Imam, Patrick A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less responsive to variation in unemployment—compared to the past. We examine another...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242214
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Risk Exposures and Financial Spillovers in Tranquil and Crisis Times; Bank-Level Evidence
Poirson, Hélène; Schmittmann, Jochen M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
For a sample of 83 financial institutions during 2003–2011, this paper attempts to answer three questions: first, what is the evolution of banks’ stock price exposure to country-level and global risk factors as approximated by equity indices; second, which bank-specific characteristics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242342
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Global Bonding; Do U.S. Bond and Equity Spillovers Dominate Global Financial Markets?
Bayoumi, Tamim; Bui, Trung - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2012
This paper uses a novel variant of identification through hetroscedacity to estimate spillovers across U.S., Euro area, Japanese, and UK government bond and equity markets in a vector autoregression. The results suggest that U.S. financial shocks reverberate around the world much more strongly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242378
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The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policies on Bank Soundness
Lambert, Frederic; Ueda, Kenichi - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
Unconventional monetary policy is often assumed to benefit banks. However, we find little supporting evidence. Rather, we find some evidence for heightened medium-term risks. First, in an event study using a novel instrument for monetary policy surprises, we do not detect clear effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142163