This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

The Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement with Ireland highlights that Ireland’s policy implementation has continued to be steadfast. Ownership of the program remains strong despite the considerable challenges the country is facing. Ireland’s progress in strengthening the...

This paper evaluates the bias of the least-squares-with-dummy-variables (LSDV) method in fiscal reaction function estimations. A growing number of studies estimate fiscal policy reaction functions-that is, relationships between the primary fiscal balance and its determinants, including public...

This paper discusses Romania’s Request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Since the 2008 global financial crisis, Romania has made significant progress in reducing macroeconomic imbalances and rebuilding fiscal and financial buffers. However, Romania remains vulnerable to external shocks,...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that recent macroeconomic developments in The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia are encouraging, with a significant deceleration in inflation and continued robust economic growth. Despite significant decline in coffee prices and supply...

This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that...

This paper presents an overview of recent U.S. fiscal developments and discusses possible implications of the sharp turn around in the government’s fiscal position. Against this back ground, it also reviews key policy challenges that will need to be addressed to cope with the mounting...

This report provides an assessment of fiscal transparency practices in Portugal against the requirements of the IMF Code of Good Practices on Fiscal Transparency. IMF staff observed that Portugal meets the requirements of fiscal transparency code in several areas. Significant progress has also...

The staff report for the 2003 Article IV Consultation on Kuwait highlights the economic developments and policies. The macroeconomic position over the medium term under current oil price expectations and the maintenance of a cautious policy stance is projected to weaken, but is not expected to...