This paper looks at whether the aggregate ERM money supply has been a useful predictor of short-term changes in inflation and growth, and long-term trends in price levels among the core ERM countries. The evidence suggests that over the period since 1987, when there have been no realignments,...

This paper examines the issue of whether countries can improve their welfare by coordinating macroeconomic policies. The main purpose is to compute the gains from international monetary cooperation as the difference between the steady state consumption levels associated with the Nash and the...

This paper is concerned with the design of institutional arrangements for low inflation in small open economies. In the real world of information asymmetries, uncertain expectations and changeable preferences, it is not enough to create an autonomous and publicly accountable central bank. In...

We study empirically daily French and German interest rate changes since the Basle-Nyborg agreement of September 1987. In particular, we ask whether the shock associated with German unification altered the degree of leadership of German monetary policy in the ERM. We conclude that Germany’s...

This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader grouping among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii)...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Ghana’s growth has remained strong, fuelled by both the private and public sectors. The Ghanaian economy maintained strong growth of about 6½ percent in 2007 and the first months of 2008. The private sector has responded positively to...

This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement for Georgia. With monetary policy impaired by high dollarization, the authorities’ response to the downturn relies mostly on fiscal stimulus. The reduction of policy interest rates and ample liquidity...

This paper discusses key findings of the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Armenia. The authorities met all quantitative performance criteria for end-June and end-September, with the exception of the end-September fiscal balance. All structural benchmarks for end-June and...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mauritania’s macroeconomic performance over recent years was satisfactory, despite a steeper-than-expected decline in oil production reflecting persistent technical problems a and difficult external environment. The real non-oil GDP growth...

Prospects for the future remain favorable, provided that policy actions are taken to address the risks and challenges that China faces. The government recognizes the need to contain investment and credit growth, and has tightened the monetary policy in response. Greater exchange rate flexibility...