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Nonlinearity in Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity; An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle
Valente, Giorgio; Leon, H. L.; Sarno, Lucio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604790
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The Monetary Model Strikes Back; Evidence From the World
Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta Chaman - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements. Using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. We also find fundamentalsbased models very successful in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263651
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Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?
Lombardi, Domenico; Bond, Stephen - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
This study investigates the relationship between uncertainty and investment using U.K. data at different levels of aggregation. Motivated by a comparative econometric analysis using a firm-level panel and aggregate time-series data, we analyze the implications of aggregating nonlinear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005264173
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Measuring a Roller Coaster; Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap
Billmeier, Andreas - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825681
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Bayesian Vars; A Survey of the Recent Literature with An Application to the European Monetary System
Ciccarelli, Matteo; Rebucci, Alessandro - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs …). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman … issues in forecasting and structural analysis. An application to the estimation of a system of time-varying reaction …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825693
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Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World; A Panel Var Approach
Kireyev, Alexei - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825740
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The Efficiency of the Japanese Equity Market
Nagayasu, Jun - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
Using the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model, this paper studies the efficiency of the Japanese equity market by examining the statistical properties of the return and volatility of the Nikkei 225. It shows that both follow a long range dependence, which stands against the efficient market hypothesis (EMH)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825859
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Economic Growth and total Factor Productivity in Niger
Nachega, Jean-Claude; Fontaine, Thomson - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006
This paper investigates empirically the sources of aggregate output growth and the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Niger between 1963 and 2003. A growth accounting analysis indicates that the erosion in output per capita over the sample period is due to the negative growth of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826119
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Public Capital and Output Growth in Portugal; An Empirical Analysis
Ligthart, Johanna Elisabeth - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2000
The paper investigates the growth effects of public capital in Portugal using annual data for the period 1965-95. Both a production function and a vector autoregressive model are estimated. Public capital is shown to be a significant long-term determinant of output growth. The size of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826148
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Foreign Exchange Market Volatility in Eu Accession Countries in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption; Weathering Uncharted Waters
Székely, István P.; Kóbor, Ãdám - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004
estimation results show not only that volatilities are different between the two regimes but also that some of the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826312