Singapore’s financial sector, which is dominated by the banking sector, remains robust despite a series of economic downturns and substantial asset price declines. Economic developments in the past few years have highlighted Singapore’s vulnerability to exogenous shocks, including...

Since recent debt restructurings that constitute credit events have been more frequent than outright defaults, sovereign bond prices may not collapse during distress. In this case, the likely high recovery values after restructuring suggest that the cost of credit-default-swap (CDS) contracts to...

The increasing ability to trade credit risk in financial markets has facilitated its dispersion across the financial and other sectors. However, specific risks attached to credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments in a market with still-limited liquidity means that its rapid expansion may actually...

This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and stress testing financial systems. The choice of techniques was guided by their...

Credit ratings have contributed to the current financial crisis. Proposals to regulate credit rating agencies focus on micro-prudential issues and aim at reducing conflicts of interest and increasing transparency and competition. In contrast, this paper argues that macro-prudential regulation is...

The paper proposes a framework for examining the process of financial market development. The framework, consistent with the functional view of financial system design, is anchored in studying the incentives facing the key players in financial markets-borrowers, lenders, liquidity providers, and...

This paper finds that systematic default risk, or the event of widespread defaults in the corporate sector, is an important determinant of equity returns. Moreover, the market price of systematic default risk is one order of magnitude higher than the market price of other risk factors. In...

This paper examines equilibrium price relationships and price discovery between credit defaul swap (CDS), bond, and equity markets for emerging market sovereign issuers. Findings suggest that CDS and bond spreads converge despite various pressures that arise in the market. In most countries,...

This technical note presents an update to the Financial System Stability Assessment (FSSA) on Switzerland. It reveals that current domestic macroeconomic and financial sector conditions are favorable, and the main downside risks to the financial sector are external. Stress tests confirm the...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation highlights that the financial market turbulence has exposed vulnerabilities in the German financial system. The German consumer’s conservatism under the current uncertain conditions will amplify the export slowdown, and investment decisions are likely to...