Abiad, Abdul; Topalova, Petia; Mishra, Prachi - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
We analyze trade dynamics following past episodes of financial crises. Using an augmented gravity model and 179 crisis … episodes from 1970-2009, we find that there is a sharp decline in a country’s imports in the year following a crisis-19 … percent, on average-and this decline is persistent, with imports recovering to their gravity-predicted levels only after 10 …