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Economic outcomes in Jamaica have fallen short of the authorities’ objectives in recent years. As the government looks to reinvigorate its growth and debt reduction strategy, it is instructive to examine how exogenous shocks and other unanticipated developments can affect economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245592
This paper has examined Papua New Guinea's historical economic growth patterns through a simple growth accounting framework. The analysis shows that swings in growth are mostly accounted for by a significant slowdown in capital input and lower Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. It also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768923
This paper constructs a coincident indicator for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) area business cycle. The resulting coincident indicator provides a reliable measure of the GCC business cycle; over the last decade, the GCC coincident index and the real GDP growth have moved closely together....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999961
This paper uses a set of routinely collected high-frequency data in low-income countries (LICs) to construct an aggregate and a comprehensive index of economic activity which could serve (i) as a measure of the direction of economic activity; and (ii) as a useful input in analyzing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790333
Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cross-country panel of growth forecasts and new methodological insights, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008646415
This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing … forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for … their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876593
We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839326
This Selected Issues paper analyzes sustaining potential growth in Aruba. As in the other Caribbean countries, there are growing concerns in Aruba about the slowdown in economic growth over the past two decades and the consequent tepid outlook for potential growth. Tackling such concerns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011245149
Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated reduced-form general equilibrium model of the Indian economy, which incorporates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959475
, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010959478