This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that following an extended boom led by strong domestic demand, the slowdown in the United States has largely reflected a drag from residential investment as the housing market has weakened substantially. Unexpected weakness in business investment and...

The paper models export taxation of a primary commodity in a large country under two hypotheses about the structure of its export market. The first is perfect competition among exporters, where there is an indefinite number of buyers of the local product and at least a partial pass-through of...

This paper discusses the United Republic of Tanzania’s 2007 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the Policy Support Instrument. The report focuses on sustaining Tanzania’s recent strong economic performance, broad-based growth, and more rapid poverty reduction. This would...

We study the link between the probability of default implied by Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads and the final prices of the defaulted bonds as established at the CDS settlement auctions. We observe that the post-default recovery rates at the observed spreads imply markets were often...

This paper presents the theoretical structure of MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy....

This paper, together with a technical companion paper, presents MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the...

The SDN elaborates the case for, and the design of, a banking union for the euro area. It discusses the benefits and costs of a banking union, presents a steady state view of the banking union, elaborates difficult transition issues, and briefly discusses broader EU issues. As such, it assesses...

Despite the external origin of the financial crisis, the potential impact on India’s corporate sector could be large, as India has become increasingly integrated with the global economy in the past decade. The Selected Issues paper discusses India’s economic development and...

This paper discusses Germany’s challenges and measures to strengthen crisis management arrangements. Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and the Bundesbank have closely coordinated with the interagency risk committee on banking matters, which also encompasses BaFin...

This Selected Issues paper summarizes estimates of the gap between current housing prices and their equilibrium levels in the United States. It examines short-term dynamics of price adjustment. Reflecting uncertainties about how to analyze underlying housing price trends, two approaches are used...