This paper examines several key global market conditions, such as a proxy for market uncertainty and measures of interbank funding stress, to assess financial volatility and the likelihood of crisis. Using Markov regime-switching techniques, it shows that the Lehman Brothers failure was a...

This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. The introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and options enhances domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export...

In 2004, the mutual fund industry of Costa Rica experienced a massive run by investors that reduced the industry to half its size in a month. This paper explores how weaknesses in the regulatory framework played a role in the crisis and draws lessons for developing countries. The analysis of...

This paper presents the DIGNAR (Debt, Investment, Growth, and Natural Resources) model, which can be used to analyze the debt sustainability and macroeconomic effects of public investment plans in resource-abundant developing countries. DIGNAR is a dynamic, stochastic model of a small open...

We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food price shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model...

This paper analyzes how differences in legal origin, judicial efficiency, and investor protection affect firm leverage and earnings volatility across developing countries. Using a large number of developing countries, four main findings are highlighted. First, firms in civil legal origin...

Abstract What do climate change, global financial crises, pandemics, and fragility and conflict have in common? They are all examples of global risks that can cross geographical and generational boundaries and whose mismanagement can reverse gains in development and jeopardize the well-being of...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation with the Kingdom of the Netherlands explains fiscal policy and financial sector issues. Improvements in the macroeconomic and business environments and technological innovation have contributed positively to Dutch competitiveness. Executive Directors emphasized...

In South Africa, long-term insurers experienced some strains during the financial crisis, but there were no crisis-related failures. The capital markets suffered sharp declines but no systemic failures. The three standards assessments have found the regulatory system fundamentally sound. The...