Schimmelpfennig, Axel; Roubini, Nouriel; Manasse, Paolo - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive...