This paper develops a new forecasting framework for GDP growth in Korea to complement and further enhance existing … forecasting approaches. First, a range of forecast models, including indicator- and pure time-series models, are evaluated for … their forecasting performance. Based on the evaluation results, a new forecasting framework is developed for GDP projections …

indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for forecasting economic activity …

A stochastic debt forecasting framework is presented where projected debt distributions reflect both the joint …-round effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic projections. The forecasting framework thus reflects the impact of the primary … balance on the forecast of macro aggregates. Previously-developed forecasting algorithms that do not incorporate these second …