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Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties; Are Any Fit to Survive?

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Pascual, Antonio Garcia; Chinn, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2004

We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005263978

Financial innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis

Mendoza, Enrique G.; Boz, Emine - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010

Uncertainty about the riskiness of new financial products was an important factor behind the U.S. credit crisis. We show that a boom-bust cycle in debt, asset prices and consumption characterizes the equilibrium dynamics of a model with a collateral constraint in which agents learn "by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560424

Evaluating Historical CGER Assessments; How Well Have they Predicted Subsequent Exchange Rate Movements?

Lee, Jungjin; Abiad, Abdul; Kannan, Prakash - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009

The IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate issues (CGER) has been conducting exchange rate assessments as part of the surveillance process since 1997. This paper evaluates CGER assessments from 1997 to 2006, by comparing these to subsequent movements in real effective exchange rates (REER)....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825774

Effect of IMF Structural Adjustment Programson Expectations; The Case of Transition Economies

Imam, Patrick A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2007

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768769

Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities: A Survey

Chan-Lau, Jorge A. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2006

This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605119

Haiti; Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion, and Augmentation of Access: Staff Report; Staff Statements; Press Release on th...

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2010

growth driver, would be affected owing to widespread damages to the production systems in and around the earthquake area. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011244864

How Do International Financial Flows to Developing Countries Respond to Natural Disasters?

David, Antonio - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010

particular, countries should take their vulnerability to natural disasters into account when considering the costs and benefits …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560427

Dealing with Increased Risk of Natural Disasters; Challenges and Options

Keen, Michael; Freeman, Paul K.; Mani, Muthukumara - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2003

Natural disaster risk is emerging as an increasingly important constraint on economic development and poverty reduction. This paper first sets out the key stylized facts in the area-that the costs of disaster have been increasing, seem set to continue to increase, and bear especially heavily on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825906

Sri Lanka; Use of Fund Resources-Request for Emergency Assistanceâ€”Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion for Sri Lanka

International Monetary Fund (IMF); International … - 2005

This paper evaluates Sri Lankaâ€™s Request for Emergency Assistance. The Sri Lankan authorities have requested a purchase in an amount of SDR 103.35 million under the IMFâ€™s policy for emergency assistance related to natural disasters. In line with IMF policy for Poverty Reduction and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005598820

Debt Sustainability Under Catastrophic Risk; The Case for Government Budget Insurance

Cavallo, Eduardo A.; Borensztein, Eduardo; Valenzuela, … - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008

Natural disasters are an important source of vulnerability in the Caribbean region. Despite being one of the more … disaster-prone areas of the world, it has one of the lowest levels of insurance coverage. This paper examines the vulnerability … that vulnerability. The paper finds that catastrophic risk insurance significantly improves Belize's debt sustainability …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005599214