The global financial crisis has highlighted the importance of early identification of weak banks: when problems are identified late, solutions are much more costly. Until recently, Europe has seen only a small number of outright bank failures, which made the estimation of early warning models...

This paper uses household survey data to estimate the incidence of tax and spending programs in Honduras. Any such exercise is fraught with difficulty, so our simplifying assumptions are carefully explained. Rather than look at tax and spending completely independently, we evaluate net incidence...

The objective of this paper is to present some early experiences of poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA) from the PRGF-supported programs in the African Department. The paper illustrates that many staff country reports have taken a first step toward PSIA by making more explicit the links...

This paper discusses the evaluation of technical assistance (TA) and training provided by the Statistical Department (STA) of the IMF to Peru during 1993–2011. The results showed that TA was reasonably effective, especially in the areas of government finance statistics, and responded well...

We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit...

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the...

A key feature of the invoice-credit form of value-added tax (VAT) is that some businesses- notably exporters-will pay more tax on their purchases than is due on their sales, and so can seek refunds of excess credits from government. While refunding is straightforward in principle, serious...

This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and...

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic and financial sector policy announcements in the United States, the United Kingdom, the euro area, and Japan during the recent crisis on interbank credit and liquidity risk premia. Announcements of interest rate cuts, liquidity support, liability...